Monday, 15 April 2013

High pressure moves away as clouds increase ahead of next system today

High pressure moves away as clouds increase ahead of next system today, The center of an area of high pressure was located over southern Vermont early this morning. The Capital Region will start the work week on a chilly note thanks to this fair weather maker.

Further south and east, an area of low pressure over the upper Midwest was advancing toward the upper Great Lakes, and a warm front tied to the area of low pressure was sweeping northward from the Ohio Valley toward the area.

Satellite pictures indicated a thin veil of cirrus clouds encroaching upon the Capital Region, well in advance of the warm front.

Through the day today, these clouds will increase, thicken, and lower, filtering the strengthening April sunshine, but still providing enough surface heating to raise the temperatures near or slightly above sixty degrees.

The warm front sluggishly moves north, through our region, and to the Canadian border by early Tuesday morning. Some showers will be possible, thanks to this feature, during the overnight period tonight.

A slow moving cold front then approaches and passes through the region during the evening on Tuesday, increasing the threat of shower activity, and possibly bringing a burst or two of moderate to potentially heavy precipitation over some spots.

A wave of low pressure is forecast to form along the frontal system as it stalls to our south by Wednesday morning. This will induce the front to play a little ‘Jekyll & Hyde’ act on the region, as the frontal boundary returns north as a warm front by Thursday morning.

This will set the stage for an encore performance of a slow moving warm and cold front pair passing through the region during the Thursday and Friday time span. This system will be associated with a greater temperature contrast than its predecessor, with warmer air moving northward into the region prior to the cold frontal passage, giving the region a potential true taste of spring.

After some residual showers exit the region late Friday night and early Saturday, some improvement should be noted in the weather. However, temperatures will have responded to the cold frontal passage, and will be lowered to near to slightly below normal levels by the weekend, and a brisk breeze will keep it feeling a bit chilly at times, especially on Saturday.

...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...

Today: Morning mix of clouds and sunshine giving way to increasing, thickening, and lowering clouds during the afternoon. A slight chance of a shower late in the day. High near 60. Southeast winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 20 percent.

Tonight: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers. Low near 40. Southeast winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Tuesday: More clouds than sunshine and breezy. Intermittent showers developing by afternoon. High near 65. Southerly winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts to near 25 MPH at times. Chance of rain is 60 percent.

Tuesday Night: Showers likely during the evening, a few bursts of moderate to heavy precipitation possible. Otherwise, variably cloudy overnight with areas of patchy fog possible late at night. Low 40-45. Southwesterly winds 5-15 MPH before midnight, shifting west and becoming light after midnight. Chance of rain is 60 percent.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 60-65. Northwest winds 5-10 MPH.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and breezy with a 40 percent chance of showers. High near 65 and low near 45.

Friday: Mostly cloudy and breezy with a 50 percent chance of showers. High near 65 and low near 45.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers early, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds and becoming windy and cooler. High near 60 and low near 40.

Sunday: Mostly sunny with a 20 percent chance of a shower. High near 60 and low near 35.

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