Friday, 19 April 2013

Strong cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon and overnight

Strong cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon and overnight, A mild airmass, for this time of year, was already in place over the Capital Region this morning thanks to brisk southerly winds that fed the warmer air northward into our area. A warm and mild day is on tap for today, as some breaks of sunshine should boost temperatures to levels about 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages. This will be short lived though, as a potent low pressure area will move from the upper Great Lakes this morning, to a position over southeastern Canada overnight tonight, and over eastern Hudson Bay in Canada by Saturday.

The forecast track of the low pressure center should drag the system’s powerful cold front through our region overnight tonight. Showers, and perhaps some thunderstorms, will become more numerous into the late afternoon and evening hours across our region. Some of this activity is likely to be accompanied by strong and gusty winds, and moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

The start of the weekend may see some residual shower activity, in the wake of the front, early Saturday morning. The general trend should be one of increasing sunshine, and also increasing westerly to northwesterly winds. Brisk and blustery conditions are expected during the afternoon hours on Saturday, and with temperatures expected to be running a good 15 to 20 degrees below where they are forecast today, it will feel a bit on the chilly side indeed.

High pressure crests north of the region Saturday night, and chilly conditions are forecast, though the winds should slacken off with the setting of the sun. Fair weather is expected to persist through the end of the weekend and into early next week, with a moderating trend in temperatures. Another complex weather system looks to approach the region for the midweek period next week, returning unsettled conditions to the region.

...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...

Today: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, windy, and unseasonably mild. A chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm late in the day. High near 70. Southerly winds 15-25 MPH with some higher gusts to near 35 MPH at times. Winds may gust even higher in the vicinity of any thunderstorm.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and windy. Some of the shower and thunderstorm activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Low near 45. Southerly winds 10-20 MPH with higher gusts to near 30 MPH before midnight, shifting west after midnight at 5-15 MPH. Chance of rain before midnight is 90 percent, and after midnight is 50 percent.

Saturday: A slight chance of a left over shower during the morning. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds and becoming windy. High in the mid 50’s. West to northwest winds increasing to 15-25 MPH with some higher gusts to near 35 MPH possible at times. Chance of precipitation in the morning is 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Low near 30. West winds 5-15 MPH early, becoming light overnight.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. High near 55. Northwest winds 5-10 MPH.

Monday: Mostly sunny. High near 60 and low near 35.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High near 60 and low near 40.

Wednesday: Overcast with a 40 percent chance of rain. High near 60 and low near 45.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of showers in the morning. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds and breezy. High near 55 and low near 40.

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