Saturday, 13 April 2013

A very stormy week ahead

A very stormy week ahead, While the eastern US is still feeling the affects of the storm system that has moved across the country this week, two more systems are already in sight. The current system has produced severe storms and tornadoes from the Ozarks to the southern Midwest and the South, with extremely heavy snow in the northern Plains. The tornadoes have ranged from EF0 to EF2 on the damage scale. The video shows a tornado over Kemper county Mississippi Thursday.

The system will finally move away from the Midwest late Saturday. During Sunday a fast moving system will move across the northern Midwest. This will bring in gusty southwest winds and mush milder air with highs in the 60s and 70s. The system will then push a cold front through during Monday which will trip off a new round of showers and storms. This front will then stall out through the Ohio river valley area into the southern Plains. The front will await the arrival of a much stronger system coming in from the Pacific.

It is the new system from the Pacific that comes across the country mid week that is most worrisome. The graphic shows the ECMWF model forecast of a strong trough at 500mb valid next Thursday morning, the GFS model is very similar. If this trough verifies, a very strong outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes can be expected the middle of next week as the system moves east. The airmass south of the stalled out front will be very warm and humid to provide plenty of fuel for severe storms. Portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks are already outlined for possible severe weather beginning next Monday.

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